💵 Did I overhear you ask about Softbank? The Softbank Vision Fund is way more logical than the majority of the people give it credit for. A lot of the innovation and risk in "software eats the world" (for better or worse) isn't technical, but in the branding / customer acquisition v LTV / operational excellence. There is very little disagreement from the market / investors that these software enabled products & services will exist. You can see that in how things have played out. A number of companies are funded going after the same opportunity and end up killing each other (and burning lots of cash) in the marketing channel. For the most part, the company with the best access to liquidity wins (if anyone at all is able to convince investors that they will emerge unscathed). Online lending is a great example of this. So is ridesharing / transportation. The list goes on. I would bet if you looked, the collective group of companies in these sectors raises just about what a typical Vision Fund check is. They are effectively funding the marketing / awareness costs for an entire sector (which everyone agrees should exist) but dramatically increasing the odds of being invested in the winner - by essentially anointing the winner. There is a strong argument to be made that what they are doing is actually a much more efficient allocation of capital. And usually there are strong returns to be had in harvesting inefficiencies… -- WQ |
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